Frederick County, VA

This county of 101,795 residents needs 4,742 more housing units over the next five years. Frederick County is part of the Winchester-Frederick County MPO.

Housing snapshot

Population
101,795 (2026)
Households
36,886
Median household income
$108,586 (2026)
Typical home value
$418,547
Owner-occupied
75%
Five-year housing need
4,742 units

Comparison to other Virginia counties

Frederick County: $108,586 Median income (2026 estimate)
<$43K >$154K
Frederick County: 0.91 jobs to household ratio
<0.31 >1.73
Frederick County: Permits since 2021 represent 10.0% of housing
<0.2% >11.9%
On this page

How affordable is this community?

The typical home in Frederick County, VA is valued at $418,547, well above the Virginia average of $287,140. Frederick County, VA's median household income of $108,586 comfortably exceeds what is needed to afford the typical home, making this a relatively affordable market.

This chart tracks whether housing prices are keeping pace with local incomes. The gap between what homes cost and what households can afford reveals affordability trends over time.

How is the population changing?

Frederick County, VA has a population of roughly 95,008, growing steadily at 1.6% per year.

Population growth patterns reveal how communities are evolving. This chart shows historical population changes by age group and projects future trends based on demographic patterns.

How has employment changed over time?

Jobs by industry sector since 2012. Switch between local jobs — counted where the jobs are located — and resident jobs, counted where the workers live. On the local view the most recent year is a nowcast: it grows the latest local LODES job mix forward using recent county employment growth from QCEW and the BLS local employment series, so the newest point tracks today's economy instead of data that is roughly two years old.

How are households changing by income?

Frederick County, VA is a growing community of roughly 36,886 households, with population increasing at 1.6% per year.

Understanding how households at different income levels are growing or declining helps identify which groups face the greatest housing pressure and where new housing is most needed.

Who lives here today?

The housing stock in Frederick County, VA is heavily oriented toward detached single-family, which makes up 77% of units. Frederick County, VA is a strongly owner-occupied community, with 75% of households owning their home.

Households may have different structure type preferences depending on characteristics such as household size, income, employment, presence of children, age of individuals, and lifestyle choices. Understanding the housing stock in corresponding terms helps assess how well existing units align with existing households' ideals.

What does the housing stock look like?

The mix of housing types and ownership patterns shapes a community's character. This chart breaks down housing units by structure type and whether they're owner-occupied or rented.

How much new housing supply is needed?

To keep up with growth and fill current housing shortages, Frederick County, VA needs 4,742 new units over the next 5 years.

3,814
Units needed to keep up with expected growth
Projected total household growth from 2026 to 2031.
10.3%
Projected household growth rate
Expected increase in total households from 36,886 in 2026 to 40,700 in 2031.
928
Units to address shortages in existing housing stock
Production needs to address vacancy rates and other factors.
266
Replacement housing
Effective annual loss rate is 1.4 per 1,000 units.
247
Ownership vacancy adjustment
Owner-occupied vacancy is 0.6%. This is below the minimum stable target of 1.5%.
415
Rental vacancy adjustment
Rental vacancy is 2.3%. This is below the minimum stable target of 7.4%.
4,742
Total 5-year housing production need (2026-2031)
948
Annual production pace
Average units needed per year to meet 5-year need
12.7%
Total housing unit growth
Percent increase in housing stock over 5 years
2.5%
Annual housing unit growth
Average percent increase in housing stock per year

How do these communities compare to each other?