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How is the population changing?
- Census Population Estimates Program (PEP) · 2010–2025
- ACS 5-year estimates · B01001 · 2010–2024
- CommunityScale population projection model
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Tract crosswalk across Census years NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Population forecast summary CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
Carolina, PR has a population of roughly 152,204, though it has been declining at 1.1% per year.
Population growth patterns reveal how communities are evolving. This chart shows historical population changes by age group and projects future trends based on demographic patterns.
Historical population comes from the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program (PEP): counties directly from PEP's annual estimates by age, and municipalities from PEP sub-county totals with age detail from the American Community Survey (ACS). Projections use CommunityScale's PEP-anchored cohort-migration forecast model.
The model follows each five-year age cohort through the community's 2010–2024 population history and projects those cohort trends forward, launching from the most recent PEP estimate (2025). Group-quarters residents — college dorms, prisons, military barracks, nursing facilities — do not follow household demographics, so they are separated out, projected on their own trend, and added back. In small communities, where year-to-year cohort data is noisy, the model blends each cohort's trend toward the community's recent overall trend to keep projections stable.
How are households changing by income?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B25007, B01001, B19001, B19113 · 2010–2024
- HUD Income Limits · FY 2025
- BLS CPI-U · 2010–2024
- Census PUMS 5-year · 2019–2023
- Congressional Budget Office CBO Per Capita Wage Growth · Per capita wage growth
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS CPI-U Inflation Ratios · Consumer price inflation factors
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B19001, B19113, B25001 +6 more ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 5-Year · Household records, Person records, Puerto Rico household records, Puerto Rico person records Census Address Count Listing · Address counts, December 2025 LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) · Block crosswalk
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HUD Income Limits · Income limits
- U.S. Department of the Treasury Homeowners Insurance Premiums by ZIP Code · Premiums by ZIP code
- Zillow Zillow Housing Data · Home values and rents by ZIP code
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Tract crosswalk across Census years, ZIP code to ZCTA NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Average homeowners insurance rates, Home values by geography, Household type by age group, Households by income band +3 more CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
Carolina, PR has roughly 65,237 households, though population has been declining at 1.1% per year.
Understanding how households at different income levels are growing or declining helps identify which groups face the greatest housing pressure and where new housing is most needed.
| AMI Group | Income Range | Households |
|---|---|---|
| <30% AMI | <$12K | 11,449 |
| 30-50% AMI | $12K - $21K | 8,460 |
| 50-80% AMI | $21K - $33K | 11,148 |
| 80-100% AMI | $33K - $41K | 5,758 |
| 100-120% AMI | $41K - $50K | 5,228 |
| >120% AMI | >$50K | 23,194 |
Who lives here today?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B19001, B19037, B19113, B19131 · 2020–2024
- HUD Income Limits · FY 2025
- Congressional Budget Office CBO Per Capita Wage Growth · Per capita wage growth
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B19001, B19001A, B19001B +11 more
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HUD Income Limits · Income limits
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Tract crosswalk across Census years NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Housing characteristics, Population forecast by age CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
The housing stock in Carolina, PR is relatively mixed, with detached single-family as the most common type at 48%. Homeownership is the norm in Carolina, PR, with 55% of units owner-occupied.
Households may have different structure type preferences depending on characteristics such as household size, income, employment, presence of children, age of individuals, and lifestyle choices. Understanding the housing stock in corresponding terms helps assess how well existing units align with existing households' ideals.
This chart shows how household composition has changed over time, comparing the distribution of household types between 2015 and 2023. Changes in household types can indicate shifting demographics and evolving housing needs in a community.
In Carolina, PR, a moderate 27% of households are cost burdened.
Cost burden measures the share of household income spent on housing. Households paying more than 30% are considered cost burdened, while those paying more than 50% are severely cost burdened. Lower-income households typically face the highest rates of cost burden.
What does the housing stock look like?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B25024, B25032, B25041, B25042 · 2020–2024
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B25024, B25032, B25041 +1 more
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Tract crosswalk across Census years NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Housing stock, Population forecast by age CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
The mix of housing types and ownership patterns shapes a community's character. This chart breaks down housing units by structure type and whether they're owner-occupied or rented.
How much new housing supply is needed?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B25001, B25004, B25016, B25024, B25042, B25053 · 2020–2024
- HUD Income Limits · FY 2025
- Census PUMS 5-year · 2020–2024
- Congressional Budget Office CBO Per Capita Wage Growth · Per capita wage growth
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS CPI-U Inflation Ratios · Consumer price inflation factors
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B19001, B19113, B25001 +8 more ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 5-Year · Household records, Person records, Puerto Rico household records, Puerto Rico person records
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HUD Income Limits · Income limits
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Tract crosswalk across Census years NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Household type by age group, Households by income band, Housing stock by age, Housing supply benchmarks +3 more CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
To keep up with growth and fill current housing shortages, Carolina, PR needs 2,652 new units over the next 5 years.
| 2,652 |
Units to address shortages in existing housing stock
Production needs to address vacancy rates and other factors.
|
| 773 |
Replacement housing
Effective annual loss rate is 1.9 per 1,000 units.
|
| 71 |
Ownership vacancy adjustment
Owner-occupied vacancy is 1.3%. This is below the minimum stable target of 1.5%.
|
| 892 |
Rental vacancy adjustment
Rental vacancy is 3.6%. This is below the minimum stable target of 7.4%.
|
| 37 |
Overcrowding adjustment
Overcrowding rate is 3.5%. This is above National avg. of 3.4%.
|
| 879 |
Substandard housing adjustment
Substandard housing rate is 2.34%. This is above National avg. of 0.98%.
|
| 2,652 |
Total 5-year housing production need (2026-2031)
|
| 530 |
Annual production pace
Average units needed per year to meet 5-year need
|
| 3.3% |
Total housing unit growth
Percent increase in housing stock over 5 years
|
| 0.7% |
Annual housing unit growth
Average percent increase in housing stock per year
|
Build Now Act: how could CDBG funding change?
- HUD CDBG Grantee Areas · Program year 2024
- ACS 5-year estimates · B25001, B25003, B25004, B25077 · 2010–2014, 2015–2019, 2020–2024
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B25001, B25003, B25004 +1 more
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HUD CDBG Entitlement Communities · CDBG entitlement grantees
- Geography NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Build Now scenario
The Build Now Act (Section 213 of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act) ties a CDBG entitlement community's grant to how much housing it is building. This is a CommunityScale estimate from public ACS data, not HUD's official determination — HUD calculates from Census Master Address File block counts.
How do these communities compare to each other?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B01001, B01002, B11001, B19013, B25002, B25003, B25007, B25010, B25024, B25064, B25070, B25077, B25091 · 2010–2024
- BLS CPI-U · 2010–2024
- Congressional Budget Office CBO Per Capita Wage Growth · Per capita wage growth
- Federal Reserve FRED 30-Year Mortgage Rate · 30-year mortgage rate
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS CPI-U Inflation Ratios · Consumer price inflation factors
- U.S. Census Bureau ACS 5-Year Estimates · B01001, B01002, B11001, B11007 +32 more ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), 5-Year · Household records, Person records, Puerto Rico household records, Puerto Rico person records Census Address Count Listing · Address counts, December 2025 LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) · Block crosswalk, Jobs by workplace block
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development HUD Income Limits · Income limits
- U.S. Department of the Treasury Homeowners Insurance Premiums by ZIP Code · Premiums by ZIP code
- Zillow Zillow Housing Data · Home values and rents by ZIP code
- Geography Geographic Crosswalks · Place to county, Tract crosswalk across Census years, ZIP code to ZCTA Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Area Delineations · CBSA delineation (List 1) NTAD Metropolitan Planning Organizations · Metropolitan planning organizations TIGER/Line Boundaries · Boundaries TIGER/Line Land and Water Area · Land and water area
- CommunityScale Data CommunityScale App Datasets · Average homeowners insurance rates, Comparison community sets, Home values by geography, Household type by age group +5 more CommunityScale Population Forecasts · County population forecasts, Municipality population forecasts
| Place | Households | Household growth 2010-2024 | 65+ households | Median household income | Vacant units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina, PR | 64,982 | 5.8% | 42.1% | $36,958 | 19.0% |
| Puerto Rico | 1,290,866 | 5.2% | 41.7% | $26,297 | 21.0% |